Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.007905 0.008905 0.009986 0.011240 0.012657 0.014209 0.016039
2026-01-25 0.006273 0.007638 0.009233 0.011236 0.013690 0.016603 0.020328
2026-02-01 0.005261 0.006758 0.008605 0.011056 0.014232 0.018217 0.023617
2026-02-08 0.004642 0.006229 0.008276 0.011117 0.014971 0.020037 0.027232
2026-02-15 0.004114 0.005731 0.007899 0.011026 0.015440 0.021479 0.030418
2026-02-22 0.003795 0.005469 0.007790 0.011257 0.016331 0.023529 0.034588
2026-03-01 0.003356 0.004984 0.007311 0.010899 0.016323 0.024270 0.036900
2026-03-08 0.003026 0.004622 0.006968 0.010691 0.016490 0.025250 0.039614
2026-03-15 0.002725 0.004271 0.006604 0.010408 0.016502 0.025970 0.041958
2026-03-22 0.002612 0.004198 0.006653 0.010762 0.017526 0.028327 0.047096
2026-03-29 0.002481 0.004082 0.006622 0.010977 0.018335 0.030393 0.051921
2026-04-05 0.002367 0.003983 0.006606 0.011212 0.019184 0.032580 0.057127
2026-04-12 0.002197 0.003779 0.006405 0.011124 0.019494 0.033905 0.060999
2026-04-19 0.002057 0.003614 0.006257 0.011116 0.019938 0.035498 0.065497
2026-04-26 0.001902 0.003412 0.006027 0.010938 0.020058 0.036515 0.069015
2026-05-03 0.001801 0.003294 0.005934 0.010998 0.020612 0.038354 0.074227
2026-05-10 0.001685 0.003142 0.005768 0.010907 0.020872 0.039659 0.078514
2026-05-17 0.001625 0.003087 0.005773 0.011136 0.021755 0.042210 0.085480
2026-05-24 0.001492 0.002884 0.005488 0.010782 0.021470 0.042466 0.087817
2026-05-31 0.001390 0.002732 0.005287 0.010576 0.021458 0.043254 0.091307
2026-06-07 0.001288 0.002572 0.005059 0.010297 0.021272 0.043670 0.094040
2026-06-14 0.001264 0.002568 0.005137 0.010647 0.022414 0.046905 0.103134
2026-06-21 0.001226 0.002533 0.005149 0.010860 0.023283 0.049631 0.111350